NL Wild Card Race

With the Padres getting beat 1-0 by the Cubs tonight, the Braves path to the NL Wild Card just got a little easier.

The Braves magic number is now 2 over San Diego.  Here are the scenarios for the Braves:
- Braves get swept by Phils, leaving them 90-72 for the season.  Padres take 2 of 3 against San Fran to finish 90-72.  Giants still win West, and Padres have to travel to Atlanta to play a one game playoff against Braves.
- Braves get swept by Phils and Padres sweep Giants.  This is the only scenario that stops Braves outright.  Braves finish 90-72, but both Padres and Giants finish 91-71.  No playoff for West division - division winner is season series winner of Pads/Giants.  Wild Card goes to the other team. This is a playoff seeding scenario only, thus, no playoff.
- Braves go 1-2 against Phils, making them 91-71 for the season.  Padres have to sweep in this case against Giants.  If they do, all three teams will be 91-71.  In this case, the Padres/Giants will play one game for the NL West title.  Loser of that will travel to Atlanta to play 1 game playoff for Wild Card.  If the Braves win 1 against Phils and Padres lose 2+ to Giants - Giants win NL West, Braves win Wild Card.
- Braves go 2-1 against Phils - Braves win Wild Card, period, as they would have 92-70 record.  Best Padres can finish is 91-71, so, if they do sweep the Giants in this scenario, they would play SF in a one game playoff for NL West crown.  Loser stays home.

So, for the Padres, the challenge is clear - they really must sweep the Giants.  The Braves can make this even more important for the Padres by winning Friday against the Phillies.  Unlike last time, when the Phils swept the Braves in Philly, the Braves get to face Kyle Kendrick, Cole Hamels, and rookie Vance Worley (as opposed to Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt).  And, I doubt Hamels or Kendrick even, will go deep in the game, exposing the Phillies middle relief.  I'm not saying the Phils would throw the games against the Braves, but, it is the difference between facing Cincinnati or San Diego in the first round (or, God forbid, San Francisco and that pitching staff).  It'll be interesting to see who plays in this series.  Werth, Victorino, Howard, have all gotten significant rest since the Phils clinched on Monday.

If you're a Phillies fan, thank Brian McCann that the home field will be with the Phils the entire post-season.

Update: Jay Brings Bad Luck

I am in Norfolk for an exercise this week and my regular weekend.

This trip is an example of how deviating from your routine screws you over.  I have driven from Atlanta to Norfolk exactly once in 6 years coming here, and that was in July when we were in Corolla for vacation and I was up here anyway.

Due to some scheduling issues with my orders, I decided to drive this time.  I left home early Sunday and stayed in Greensboro for a couple hours before heading to Norfolk.  We've all had that odd feeling when we travel that we've forgotten something, and I kind of had that, but I didn't fully realize it until I got here, unpacked my bag, and realized my Navy Working Uniform (NWU, or "Blueberries") blouse and pants were still hanging in the closet at home.  Haha!  Joke's on me.  I had my cap, boots, belt, and all the undershirts, just not the important parts.

Amy agreed to run them over to Fed-Ex and send them to me, so that they will arrive tomorrow (Tues), but, I needed to go to the Exchange and buy some khakis to tide me over.  Which I did.  Oh, and some new black shoes.  Fortunately, the nice ladies at the new uniform shop (much larger) agreed to hem the pants for me right away, so that made it easier.  And we didn't actually start the exercise until noon on Monday, so I was able to make the start, although I stood out pretty well from everyone else.  Luckily, I think most people just assume an airline lost my luggage, so, I get some sympathy.  To top it off, this morning, I thought I had lost my wallet.  I hadn't.

If you live in the East, you know today is the continuation of a 3 day deluge.  No different here in Norfolk.  So, after the day ended at 7:45 tonight, we (myself and one of my shipmates who drove this morning to the waterfront) took the long walk from the ship, down the pier to his car, and got soaked in the continuing flood. Got in the car, and within 5 minutes, were broad-sided in the parking lot by an idiot who apparently didn't know what his brakes were for.  My bad luck rubbing off on someone else.  Ever see that commercial where the guys are talking, then all of a sudden, they get broadsided?  That's what it was like, except it was my side getting hit.  It was a parking lot, so, the hit wasn't that hard (no airbags deployed), and I am not sore or anything, but, both cars were undriveable.  Again, not my car, so I was lucky.

I also found out this week that I got another reserve job starting in December.  Back to the submarine force, but staying in Norfolk.  This will likely be my last tour, as I will have 27 years when it runs out, and being unlikely to make Captain, the Navy will force me out at 28 years anyway.  It'll be time to retire then.  But, I said that I would stay in as long as the Navy continued to pay me, and they're going to, and this gives me another 3 years to get an AT in Japan, so, I am going to effort that.

In some good news, Randell got a job today.  She's going to be a hostess weekends (Sa/Su) 8a-2p at IHOP.  Yum.

In case you missed it on SleepyEyedWhiners, here is my post on college football 2010.

One thing I forgot to add there, UGA is 1-2, after a last minute loss to Arkansas.

Braves Update

It's now crunch time in the baseball stretch run.

The Braves managed, with a rotten early September, to play themselves out of the lead in the NL East.  Of course, the Phillies great second half play helped, and they're now in a 3 game lead in the NL East.  This week, the Phils and Braves will square off in Philly, with this being the Braves last gasp at taking the NL East.

At the same time, the Rockies have done their usual end of year push, and have become players in both the NL West and Wild Card races.  As many predicted, the Padres finally swooned and are now fighting the Giants and Rockies for that division lead.  It's right now 4 teams for 2 spots, with no clear leader in the NL West, and the Braves nursing a 2 game lead for the Wild Card.

As I write this, the Braves have a 3 run lead to sweep the Mets today, which would put the Braves at 86-64 and headed to 90 wins easily, which has been the number to hit for an NL Wild Card team.  Only a couple of times in the last ten years has an NL team had more than 90 wins and not won the division or wild card.  If the Braves play .500 the rest of the way and end up 92-70, that should do it.  Over in the AL, there have been several occasions where teams have won 93 and not made it.  Still, 90 is usually the number.  This year, in the NL, with 4 good teams chasing those two spots, I think it may take 92 or 93 wins.  For the braves that means they go 7-5 in their last 12 and I think they are definitely in.  If they do that and end up 93-69, the Rockies would need to go 11-3.  The Giants would need to go 10-3, and the Padres would need to go 10-4.  So, there you have it.  The path to the Wild Card is much simpler for the Braves right now.  So, keep the faith, Braves fans!

But...if the Braves go 2-4 against the Phils in those last 6, that means they need to go 5-1 against the Marlin and Nats, 2 teams that have given the Braves fits.  So, better to go 3-3 to the Phils and then it's just 4-2 against those two teams.

Ryan's 18th Birthday

This week was Ryan's 18th birthday.  If you remembered, thanks, and, if you remembered and sent him a gift, double thanks.  The note's in the mail to you.

For his birthday, he received an iPhone 3G (because I still can't order a 4G and because they're only $99 right now), some new headphones, Halo Reach, and a trip to visit his girlfriend, Alex, in Mississippi. Of course, as part of that gift, I got a trip to Mississippi, seeing as how Ryan still has no license to drive, nor a car I would trust to go to MS.

Anyway, it's an easy trip from Atlanta to Jackson, and thanks to Priceline, one can stay in a decent hotel for about half price.  If you're willing to take a chance on the hotel Priceline picks for you, I recommend using it to get a great rate. Priceline can be manipulated a little to get you the hotel you choose, but, if you stick to their star ratings, you can good good prices on otherwise expensive hotels.  So, I stayed at the Marriott in downtown Jackson for half the listed price (which isn't much to begin with for a weekend in Jackson, MS).

As WC Fields used to describe Philadelphia, I spent a week in Jackson one Sunday.  Really, I did.

As with many mid-size Southern cities, Jackson's downtown is largely abandoned, except this is the seat of MS's government, so, lawyers offices and churches dominate the landscape.  I took a bunch of pictures, which you can see here.

Another house story

We've been doing some landscaping, and have created a little peace garden in the back yard.  I think you'll all agree it really makes our formerly very dreary back yard much nicer.





Action shot of the painter in the background.  Yes, that's a can of black spray paint.

Our most recent addition...

In the last couple of weeks, out trusty 2005 Nissan Pathfinder had been making some odd sounds.  So, fearful of the potential results, and with the knowledge that this car has 109,000 miles on it and the model has some transmission issues, we decided now might be a good time to put it to pasture.

So, I set about finding a suitable replacement for Amy.  One that retained the utility of a SUV with the driving characteristics and mileage of a car.  I have wanted a VW Jetta Sportwagen TDI for some time, so, I though that might make an ideal vehicle for our needs.  Big enough for 5, enough room for catering stuff, and 45 MPG highway (the "D" in TDI is "Diesel").

Here's a review on Edmunds.com and a pic of my favorite.



Turns out that after Amy saw the car, she decided, "No way!"

But, she did like the VW Beetle convertible.  Hmmm, this was not the plan.  So, after a test drive, she liked it even more.  Fortunately, the dealer was near closing time, and we had brought the Pathfinder to trade.  When the plan changed to a "fun" car, we decided keeping the Pathfinder was a necessity, so trading my 2004 Jeep Liberty became the plan.  That worked for everyone because we all basically disliked this perfectly respectable and reliable car.

Why all the hatred? I don't know.  Most people complained about the stick shift and the somewhat uncomfortable ride, due to the short wheelbase.

Since the VW dealer was closing, this meant no car that day (Sunday).  And, since the Ford dealer was across the street, I thought we should check out the Mustangs.  Ford introduced a significantly upgraded Mustang for 2011 in February 2010, but with few cosmetic changes.  That meant we could perhaps grab a 2010 Mustang at a good price, and no one would really be the wiser.  The Ford dealer was closed, but they did have enough Mustangs on the lot so that Amy pretty much decided the bigger and more manly car was better than a Beetle.

To cut to the chase, after some Internet work, we found 2 2010 Mustangs at a dealer about 45 minutes away, with low miles (15k) below Edmunds' average trade price.  Use carfax.com if it's available, because for both these it was.  One was a former rental, and the other an off-lease.  So, bye bye Liberty, and hello new Mustang:

If I can get a tow hitch put on it, we may take it on trips!  Not.

Baseball stretch run starts now

Well, back on June 1st, I posted this about the Braves.

Back on June 1, the Braves had turned their season around, and the Phillies, in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal, were moving backward, into 2nd place, where they remain today.

What's more interesting about this whole thing is that if you looked at the performance of players back on June 1 versus September 1, you see that the Braves have largely changed their entire starting 8.  Of the players we looked at back on June 1, the following are no longer getting any significant playing time:

• Chipper Jones - torn ACL - probably a career ending injury.
• Yunel Escobar - traded to Toronto for Alex Gonzalez
• Troy Glaus - knees finally caught up to him, back on the team with roster expansion, but, not likely to see much playing time at first base with Derrek Lee and Freddie Freeman occupying that spot now.
• Nate McLouth - Got seriously injured in a collision and spent most of the summer in AAA.  Back now, but, just as bad.

In case you didn't notice, that means 3/4 of the Braves infield on June 1 is no longer starting.  The only constant has been Martin Prado, who was hitting .323 in June 1 and is hitting .317 now and was the starting 2B in the all-star game.  Of couse, Martin has replaced Chipper at 3B and that has allowed super-sub Omar Infante to play 2B, and contend now for the batting crown, where, once he qualifies for it, is nearly 20 points ahead of Joey Votto (.347 vs. .327 as of tonight).  Alex Gonzalez was acquired to replace the powerless, sulky Escobar, and has been a general upgrade.  The fact that guys in the clubhouse cheered when he arrived tells you all you need to know about Escobar.

In the outfield, Matt Diaz has rebounded nicely from his early season injury, Rick Ankiel (acquired from KC), while not spectacular at the plate, has been an upgrade from McLouth, and is one of the best defensive CF's in the game.  Jason Heyward, batting .292 on June 1, battled a thumb injury, saw his power decline, and his average dip into the low .250's, but, is back up to .285 at press time with 5 homers this in the last 30 days and will probably be rookie of the month for August.  

Brian McCann has improved his power and average and is getting back to his normal numbers.

The other constant has been the strength of the bench.  While Infante was forced into an everyday role, the LF platoon of Melky Cabrera/Diaz has worked out pretty well, and Brooks Conrad has been the PH force, with Erik Hinske, and David Ross has been such a good back-up catcher, the Braves signed him to a 2 year deal recently.

The other constant on this team has been good pitching.  Tim Hudson has 15 wins, and is in the Cy Young conversation.  Kris Medlen was great until tearing up his elbow, requiring Tommy John surgery (read his blog as he recovers).  Mike Minor, last year's #1 draft pick, has stepped into Medlen's spot and been pretty good.  Tommy Hanson has pitched good enough to win 15 games, but has been the victim of no support.  Jair Jurrjens has returned to form.  Only Derek Lowe has been awful, as well as Kenshin Kawakami.  Lowe hasn't been bad enough to lose his rotation spot, but, he's been pretty bad.  KK spent the last month in Gwinnett, but, with Lowe missing his next start with elbow soreness, KK will get a chance to redeem himself.

The real constant this season has been the bullpen.  Billy Wagner has been amazing mostly, and Johnny Venters has turned out to be a beast, and, while he's nominally a starter, Frank Wren must be thinking he's a potential replacement for the retiring Wagner for next year.  No one has been a real bust in the pen.  Takashi Saito has been quite good, as has Eric O'Flaherty and even the sometimes spotty Peter Moylan (what's interesting is that Venters seems to have replaced Moylan as the 8th inning guy, with Moylan likely being used against predominantly RH batters and when a ground ball is desperately needed).  Even Christian Martinez has filled a long relief role, and looked good (leaving hope that he might be a potential valuable starter some day).  

Anyway, the Braves bashed the hapless Mets again tonight, and hold on to their 3 game lead over the Phils.  If you're a Phillies fan (and I know some of you are), you have to wonder how the Phils can play so well lately and still be 3 games back.  Take heart, the Braves go to Florida this weekend, where the Marlin give them fits.  But, then it's on to Pittsburgh against the worst team in the NL before coming home again.

Personally, I think both Atlanta and Philly make it, as well as Cincinnati and San Diego.  Doesn't matter, because the Rays will win it all.